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A short note on method

The hostcount analysis is based on surveys published by Network Wizards. The most recent update (December 2007) was published in February 2008. “Hostcount” is the number of internet hosts in each country. Of course that relates to the country in which an internet domain is registered, not necessarily to the physical location of the server. A host is an active and permanent IP number, i.e. a functioning service directly connected to the internet.

The hostcount survey for the second half of 2006 reported, for the first (and only) time in 25 years, a smaller total wordlwide number compared to six months earlier. But was is not an actual decrease. It was an adjustment in some “top level domain” categories in the United States.

This is the growth of internet hostcount from 1981 to 2007 according to the worldwide internet domain survey.

1981 – 213
1982 – 235
1983 – 562
1984 – 1,204
1985 – 1,961
1986 – 5,089
1987 – 28,174
1988 – 80,000
1989 – 159,000
1990 – 376,000
1991 – 727,000
1992 – 1,313,000
1993 – 2,217,000
1994 – 5,846,000
1995 – 14,352,000
1996 – 21,819,000
1997 – 29,760,000
1998 – 43,230,000
1999 – 72,398,000
2000 – 109,574,000
2001 – 147,345,000
2002 – 171,638,000
2003 – 233,101,000
2004 – 317,646,000
2005 – 394,992,000
2006 – 433,193,000
2007 – 541,677,000

This graph shows growth from 1991 to 2007.

Internet hosts 1991-2007
Numbers in millions

 
The 2006 number is adjusted to account for the change in some domain data

Growth continues, but it can not be defined as a “logical curve”. It’s a combination of many different trends. Overall it’s quite fast. The size of online activities worldwide has increased tenfold in eight years and has doubled in the last three-and-a-half years.

This table summarizes growth from 1994 to 2007.

	Number of hosts	% growth
		in six months	in a year
December 1994 *	5,846,000	51.1	118.9
June 1995 *	8,200,000	40.3	106.8
December 1995 *	14,352,000	75.0	145.5
June 1996 *	16,729,000	30.5	104.0
December 1996 *	21,819,000	29.9	52.0
June 1997 *	26,053,000	19.4	55.7
December 1997	29,670,000	13.9	36.0
June 1998	36,739,000	23.8	41.0
December 1998	43,230,000	17.7	45.7
June 1999	56,218,000	30.0	53.0
December 1999	72,398,000	28.8	67.5
June 2000	93,048,000	28.5	65.5
December 2000	109,574,000	17.8	51.4
June 2001	125,888,000	14.9	35.3
December 2001	147,345,000	17.0	34.5
June 2002	162,128,500	10.0	28.8
December 2002	171,638,300	5.9	16.5
December 2003	233,101,500	n.a.	35.8
June 2004	285,139,100	22.3	n.a.
December 2004	317,646,000	11.4	36.3
June 2005	353,284,000	11.2	23.9
December 2005	394,992,000	11.8	24.3
June 2006	439,286,000	11.2	24.3
December 2006	433,193,000	– 1.3	9.7
June 2007	489,774,000	13.1	11.5
December 2007	541,677,000	10.6	25.0

* The survey system changed in January 1998. 1994-1997 data are adjusted to fit the new criteria. 1994 percentages over 1993 are based on the “old” survey.

From 1987 to 2007 the survey has been published twice a year,
but only year-end figures were available for 2003.
 

The real increase in 2006 was much larger than it appears in these figures. As pointed out at the beginning of this report, the hostcount results for some domain categories have changed and the outcome concerns mainly, if not exclusively, the United States. The technical reasons for this aren’t clear, but it’s pretty obvious that in the rest of the world there was a 33 percent increase of hostcount in 2006 over 2005 – with a worldwide average close to 25 percent (also in the United states online activity continues to grow, probably bewteen 18 and 20 percent each year).

In previous periods, as total numbers became larger, growth percentages decreased until 1997. There appeared to be a new acceleration in 1999 but it wasn’t confirmed in 2001 and 2002. Growth was much faster in 2003 and 2004. A 24 percent increase in 2005 was remarkably high for anything that has reached such a large size (and real development in 2006-2007 is continuing with approximately the same speed). Once again, we see that the internet continues to have strong growth, but no coherent trend can be defined – and therefore no reliable projections or forecasts can be made. It seems likely, however, that total houstcount will exceed 600 million in 2008.

The next table analyzes data for the 56 countries (of 240) that have over 200,000 internet hosts.

	Number of hosts December 2007	% growth in a year	% of   total	Per 1000 inhab.
United States	274,101,000	+ 18.9	47.9	915.5
Japan	36,803,719	+ 19.3	6.4	260.9
Germany	20,659,105	+ 57.8	3.6	250.6
United Kingdom *	20,000,000	n.a.	3.5	331.2
Italy	16.730,591	+ 20.8	2.9	282.9
France	14.356,747	+ 38.9	2.5	234.0
China	13,113,985	n.a.	2.3	10.0
Canada *	11,000,000	n.a.	1.9	340.9
Australia	10,707,139	+ 24.6	1.9	539.3
Netherlands	10,540,083	+ 16.9	1.8	644.4
Brazil	10,151,592	+ 36.8	1.8	44.9
Mexico	10,071,370	+ 50.4	1.8	74.0
Spain *	9,000,000	n.a.	1.6	202.0
Poland	7,134,976	+ 42.7	1.3	187.1
India *	7,000,000	n.a.	1.2	6.3
Taiwan	5,121,607	+ 15.9	0.9	222.3
Sweden	3,886,313	+ 20.1	0.7	428.0
Finland	3,728,551	+ 17.0	0.7	706.6
Russia	3,647,609	+ 52.2	0.6	25.6
Belgium	3,618.495	+ 14.8	0.6	343.3
Switzerland	3,308,684	+ 28.7	0.6	443.6
Denmark	3,256,134	+ 16.0	0.6	597.8
Argentina	3,128,975	+ 70.3	0.6	80.3
South Korea *	3,000,000	n.a.	0.5	63.1
Norway	2,725,031	+ 15.0	0.5	582.2
Austria	2,589,316	+ 11.1	0.5	312.7
Turkey	2,425,789	+ 53.4	0.4	33.2
Czech Republic	2,093,497	+ 39.3	0.4	204.2
Romania	2,014,220	+ 72.3	0.4	93.2
Hnngary	1,689,456	+ 43.6	0.3	168.6
New Zelaland	1,687,494	+ 24.5	0.3	418.9
Portugal	1,643,768	+ 8.8	0.3	155.5
Israel	1,397,740	+ 6.6	0.3	200.1
Greece	1,326,917	+ 60.1	0.2	119.3
Colombia	1,299,244	+ 80.2	0.2	30.4
Ireland	1,247,734	+ 3.3	0.2	294.6
South Africa	1,197,088	+ 15.5	0.2	25.3
Thailand	1,046,148	+ 11.4	0.2	16.0
Singapore	954,475	+ 5.0	0.2	264.5
Hong Kong	816,695	+ 1.9	0.2	118.6
Chile	816,695	+ 11.8	0.2	49.7
Lithuania	783,646	+ 225.7	0.1	231.5
Indonesia	709,388	+ 175.3	0.1	3.2
Slovakia	695,520	+ 40.9	0.1	129.1
Croatia	569,138	+117.4	0.1	129.1
Estonia	564,608	+ 25.7	0.1	419.8
Bulgaria	470,213	+ 113.3	0.08	60.9
Ukraine	424,711	+ 54.8	0.07	9.2
Malasysia	383,220	+ 131.2	0.07	14.4
Slovenia *	360,000	n.a.	0.06	179.2
Arab Emirates	329,348	=	0.06	74.6
Peru	283,988	=	0.05	10.7
Uruguay	280,635	+ 53.9	0.05	84.7
Philippines	272,976	+ 12.0	0.05	3.2
Morocco	273,748	+ 1.9	0.05	9.0
Iceland	229,916	+ 10.0	0.04	748.9
World total	541,677,360	+ 25.0		43.3

Figures for the United States are “weighted ” approximately to account for the fact that some of the “apparently American” domains are in toher countries. This applies also to the graphs. Worldwide density is based on hostcount and population excluding the U.S.

* Figures for the UK, India, Canada, Spain, South Korea and Slovenia are “arbitrarily but not unreasonably” adjusted
to compensate for underestimated hostcount data in this period.

There is considerable growth in several European countries and in other parts of the world. Trends need always to be understood over more extende periods, but there are some relevant changes, as in the case of France (that had overtaken Australia in 2004 and the Netherlands in 2006), Poland that in recent years has moved ahead, as a total, of some traditionally strong countries, Mexico that appears to have new acceleration in 2006-2007 and some fast-growing countries in Asia.

In the seconf half of 2007, for the first time in the history of the internnet, the United States (while maintaining a dominant p�osition) have less than half the total worldwide hostcount.

A “sudden” change in the second half of 2007 is a huge increase of hostcount in China. The beleivability of such “leaps” is always questionable. It will take years to understand if something is really changing – and, if so, what and how. (See the report on Asia.)

Now thirtyeight countries worldwide have over a million internet hosts (six in the Americas, eight in Asia, two in the Pacific, twentyone in Europe and one in Africa.)  Sixteen (seven in Europe) are over five million and twelve (five in Europe) over ten.

If we look beyond national borders there are two large language communities online: Spanish and Chinese (there is a specific document in Italian that explains this subject.)

This graph shows the situation by “large geographical areas”.

Large geographical areas

There are changes, but the general picture doesn’t look very different compared to past years. The internet isn’t “global”. A large part of the world has scarce access. North America and Europe, with 19 percent of the population, have 76 percent of the worldwide activity on the internet.

The continent (outside North America) with the highest density is Oceania-Pacific, that has 360 internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants. The index in Europe is 172. In Latin America it is 46 (it became higher than the world average in 2006). In Asia 17 and in Africa 2 per thousand. As we see in this graph.

Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants

There are also big differences inside each of the areas. 95 percent of the net in North America is in the United States. 99 percent of the net in Oceania (Pacific) is in two countries, Australia and New Zealand. 55 percent of Asia is in Japan (30 percent in the Chinese ethnic area). 65 percent of Africa is in South Africa, 80 percent of central-south America is in Brazil and Argentina. Only in Europe no country has more than 17 percent of the total, but there are considerable differences, as explained in the analysis of European data.

In year 2007 there was 25 percent growth worldwile, 47 percent in Latin America, 39 percent in Europe, 34 percent in Asia, 25 percent in Oceania, 20 percent in North America. It was 20 percent also in Africa, but on a much smaller scale.

The percentage of the United States on the world total has decreased in recent years, but it remains dominant. To understand how the pictuire is changing, this graph shows the situation as it was six years ago (countries with over a million internet hosts at the end of 2001.)

13 countries – 2001

The US share, that has always been large, had increased at that time.

The next graph shows an update of the same picture in the most recent data (countries with over seven million internet hosts in the second half of 2007.)

14 countries – 2007

If, for better readability, we exclude the United States, this is the picture for the other 25 countries with over two-and-a-half million internet hosts.

25 countries – 2007

There were some relevant changes in recent years, with growth of some European countries, a stronger presence of Brazil and Mexico and new developments in China and India. But over a third of the internet outside the United States remains concentrated in five countries that have six percent of the world’s population.

The next graph shows density (hosts per thousand inhabitants) in 37 countries worldwide that have over a million internet hosts.

Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants in 37 countries

The size of the United States is reduced by 20 % for better redability of the graph.

The United States caught up with Finland in 1998 and gained a growing lead in following years, also in density as related to population, but now the difference is decreasing. Traditionally strong countries, as in the case of Scandinavia, and more recently the Netherlands, still have fast growth. France has been growing faster in recent years, getting ahead of the European average in 2007. Growth continues in Eastern Europe, with a particularly strong development in Poland and in the Czech Republic.

The next graph shows internet activity in relation to income (GDP) in the same 37 countries.

Internet hosts in relation to income (GDP)
in 37 countries

Of course it would be silly to turn this into a “sensational” headline about “Poland ahead of the US” or Romania overtaking the Netherlands. There is no such accuracy or reliability in these data – as in all sorts of statistics. But the picture is evolving, and there will probably be more changes.

Some of the world’s largest economies (such as Germany and France) appear weak in this perspective. There is remarkable growth in parts of Eastern Europe and Latin America. Poland is now ahead of Finland on this score – and Argentina has overtaken Taiwan, that however still holds its leading position in Asia. Israel is the strongest country in the Mediterranean area for internet activity in relation to income.

It’s interesting to look at density worldwide as a map.

Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants

Somewhat arbitrarily, the “orange” area in this map
covers only part of the Russian federation
because it’s reasonable to assume that online activity
is concentrated mostly in European Russia

A few small islands in the Pacific with a relatively
high hostcount are not shown in this map
 

Situations in several countries have changed in recent years. For instance in 2002 there were three countries with over 200 internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants (the United States, Finland and Iceland) and now they are thirty. But the general picture remains the same.

The “globality” of the internet is limited to a small part of the globe. Use of the net is concentrated on the two sides of the North Atlantic – and in some isolated places in East Asia, the Middle East and the Pacific. There is fast evolution in Latin America but it’s still behind the northern end of the American continent and most of Europe. A large part of the world has still minimal (if any) access to communication networks.

Four documents in the “data” section
contain detailed maps of
Europe   Asia   Africa   Latin America

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In three other documents there are analyses
of the internet in Europe, Asia and Africa

       

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index of the data section

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