There has been electronic networking for over thirty years. But there was a change ten years ago. In 1994 internet access became available to a large number of people in several countries – and more so in 1995. At the same time the world wide web, that was born in 1989, was spreading to general use (that is why many people, who came online ten years ago or later, don’t understand the difference).

It’s not exactly true that there were computers two thousand years ago, though scientists and philosophers had elaborate computing machines (see The Archimedes computer). They also had remarkably effective communication networks at that time, but they were available only to a few privileged people – and they were much slower than the systems we are using now.

It’s a fact, however, that the internet didn’t “happen” in a very short time. The concept that led to the web as we know it now could be found in ideas that were developing in the nineteenth century – and it was specifically defined sixty years ago. The process that shaped the internet was the result of an evolution that dates back to the invention of the telegraph in 1844 and the telephone in 1877. But things take time. Though there were Usenet newsgroups in 1979 (and they are still quite busy twentysix years later) most people had no idea of what the internet is, or can do, before 1995.

There is no point in being nostalgic. Though it’s a fact that the net was in many ways more efficient, and faster, in the early Nineties than it is now. There is no need to go back to Gopher and Veronica, or to “anonymous FTP”, because we can use web browsers also to find things that aren’t in websites. There is much more stuff online that there was ten or twenty years ago and it’s (relatively) easier to find. But there is also a lot of messy clutter – and some of the clumsily applauded technical “improvements” are making things less manageable and often quite disturbing.

In mid 1995 there were eight million internet hosts worldwide. In that year they grew from one to two million in Europe. Small numbers compared to what they are now, but much larger than a few years earlier. Some analysts thought that hostcount would eventually stabilize at a “roof” between forty and fifty million as a world total, around ten million in Europe. Others were projecting an enormously exaggerated “exponential” growth. They were all wrong.

In 1995 the number of people worldwide using the internet (or other networks) was probably 30 million. The world’s most applauded “experts” were sure that there would be a billion people online before year 2000. It didn’t happen. Recent estimates claim over 900 million in 2005, but a more realistic definition is somewhere between 500 and 600 million. That’s a lot of people, but only eight or nine percent of the world’s population – and mostly concentrated in a relatively small part of the planet. Networks are large, but not really “global”.

Even before 1995 there were many attempts to control, censor, centralize and otherwise “tame” the internet. They haven’t succeeded, but they are continuing. Problems such as spam and scam were clearly identified well before 1995, but nobody believed, ten (or five) years ago, that they could become as large and vicious as they are now.

Figures, of course, don’t tell the whole story. But it may be useful to take a look at what happened in a decade. Let’s start with a trend that is analyzed in greater detail in the data section. This is the growth of worldwide hostcount from 1994 to 2004.

Internet hosts worldwide – 1994-2004
numbers in millions

It isn’t “exponential”, but it’s remarkably fast. There were changes in speed, but only in 2002 there was less than 30 percent yearly growth.

The next graph shows development in Europe in the same period.

Internet hosts in Europe – 1994-2004
numbers in millions

A few years ago growth in Europe was slower than the world average, but now it’s faster (see European data.)

A somewhat different picture is shown by the number of websites – that in 2005 is getting close to 70 million.

Websites worldwide – 1995-2005
numbers in millions

After a decrease in 2001-2002 caused by the deflation of the financial “bubble”, there is strong growth also in the number of websites. But less than half of the sites are found to be “active” – and that shows that there is still a rush at “being there” without a clear idea of why, or to do what, or how to keep a website alive and productive.

It’s much more difficult to find reliable data on the number of people using the internet. This graph is a very vague approximation of what the trend may have been in the last ten years.

People connected to the internet worldwide 1994-2004
numbers in millions

A more realistic estimate is probably 40 percent lower. In those countries (e.g. in western Europe) where there is higher density of internet use growth was slower in recent years than in 1995-2000 – while it’s faster in some of the areas where levels are relatively lower. But numbers are increasing whenever internet use is not forbidden or restricted. There is no perception anywhere of getting close to a “saturation level”, though of course where percentages of population are very high there isn’t much room for a further large increase of the total number of people using the net, if only occasionally.

But the sheer number of “internet users”, doesn’t tell us what they are doing with it. Of course there are considerable opportunities for improvement of quality. That depends on how people learn to tailor the net to their needs – as well as on the quality of what they can find.

A decade may be a long time in the life of a person, but it’s a short period in the development of human culture. Even people who have been online for fifteen or twenty years still have a lot to learn – if they haven’t lost their wish to search, find and improve. More new things come online every day than anyone can possibly explore. Unfortunately there is a lot of rubbish, but there are, and there will be, also attractive new discoveries.

 

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